基础设施投资:为什么是现在?

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Introduction

在基础设施领域, a convergence of trends—some that investors have been focused on for years, others more recent—should continue to drive investment opportunities in high-quality assets. 

最近的发展包括大量的数据投资机会, 全球对脱碳的推动, 中游行业由于对ESG的担忧而失宠. These are playing out amid longer-term trends such as aging utilities that require significant capital upgrades, 世界各国政府都在寻求解决日益膨胀的债务问题的办法.

At Brookfield, uedbet安卓专注于基础设施资产,为支持重要经济和社会活动的基本服务提供支柱. Prominent examples include electricity transmission and distribution; water distribution; midstream systems; ports, rail and roads; and communications and data networks.

考虑到它们的本质, these assets often provide investors with stable and secure cash flows, downside protection, 从其他资产类别分散投资, 通货膨胀保护和长期负债匹配. 通过专注于重要的运营资产, an infrastructure strategy should be resilient in most economic environments. While we believe that infrastructure is compelling for investors across a variety of market conditions, 今天的气候似乎特别充满机遇. 

70% of electricity transmission and distribution systems are well into the second half of their lifespans

公用事业老龄化和资金缺口扩大

We continue to observe traditional asset operators in the utilities sector seeking alternative sources of funding. 它们的资本需求非常重要,因为它们希望取代旧的运营资产,并实现脱碳目标. 

The state of the U.S. electrical grid highlights the aging of infrastructure assets generally. 根据美国土木工程师协会2021 Infrastructure Report Card, 70% of electricity transmission and distributions systems are well into the second half of their lifespans.1 As a result, the U.S. is experiencing numerous outages affecting a substantial number of customers across the country (see Figure 1). Within the U.S., many utility operators today are still publicly owned and federal-, state- or municipal-run. 

在这些挑战到来之际,世界各地的发达经济体都背负着历史上最高水平的债务——这一趋势早在大流行和与之相关的全球经济关闭之前就出现了. 人口结构不良(包括人口萎缩和老龄化), 不断扩大的福利项目和长期的低利率鼓励了借贷,导致美国政府出现了前所未有的赤字.S. 以及欧盟的许多国家(见图2).

Figure 1: The U.S. 受到过多次停电的挑战

图1停电
资料来源:2017伊顿停电跟踪.

图二:各国政府面临不断增加的预算赤字

政府赤字(万亿美元)

图二预算赤字
Sources: U.S. 财政部, 国会预算办公室, 国际货币基金组织(imf), 世界经济展望数据库, October 2020.

The pandemic, and the strain it has put on government finances, has made this issue even more urgent.

许多基础设施领域的传统资产运营商都面临着维护其系统的巨大资金缺口. For example, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates the U.S.累计资金缺口为2美元.2020年至2029年共5万亿元(见图3).

政府可以通过三种主要方式来应对这一挑战. They can increase taxes, but there is a limit to how much additional revenue that can produce. 他们也可以求助于私营部门提供服务, or they can sell assets and use the proceeds to help rebuild their balance sheets. 作为私人投资者, uedbet安卓期望后两种选择应该为那些具有业务专长和有机会大规模使用的国家创造许多机会, flexible capital.

Figure 3: U.S. 基础设施资产将需要超过2美元.2020-2029年的5万亿投资

(以十亿美元计)

图3基础设施资产
Source: 2021 Infrastructure Report Card, American Society of Civil Engineers.

The U.S.美国的总累积资金缺口估计为2美元.从2020年到2029年的5万亿美元

数据网络需要大规模升级

对数据的需求增长迅速——无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,都比其他任何商品都要快——而且这种增长没有出现停滞的迹象. 

Much of this data is still being transported globally across an outdated network. While the telecom industry has seen a huge transformation from its copper backbone infrastructure to fiber optic, that shift still needs to extend to the “last mile”—the end-user’s doorstep, 无论是一间办公室, 零售地点或住宅. 要使该行业能够满足不断增长的容量和速度需求,将需要大量的投资.

In addition, 随着世界推出5G, many more mobile communications towers and data centers will be required. At the same time, 电信公司正将成熟资产的权益出售给专业基础设施投资者,以资助扩张项目. 这种安排使电讯公司能够确保与有经验的第三方营办商取得长期联系, 同时为这些运营商提供稳定的长期现金流. 

uedbet安卓预计,仅在未来五年内,全球升级数据基础设施就需要至少1万亿美元的投资(见图4)。, 一个巨大的任务. 

图4:5G将帮助推动1美元.1 Trillion of Investment In Global Networks Over the Next Five Years

Capex 2020–25

Figure 4 5G Capex
Source: GSMA.

全球推动脱碳

全球为减缓气候变化所做的努力,为可再生能源带来了巨大的市场机遇.

The global consensus is that carbon emissions must be reduced across all aspects of modern life. uedbet安卓继续看到各国政府承诺实现脱碳目标, 以及私营部门自愿设定自己的目标. 

好消息是可再生能源——尤其是太阳能和风能——的成本近年来已经大幅下降(见图5)。. uedbet安卓已经达到了在没有政府支持的情况下,对可再生能源进行有利可图的投资. 

高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计,到2030年,将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内,将需要多达16万亿美元的总投资.2 考虑到这些脱碳行动的规模, uedbet安卓相信,在清洁能源解决方案方面具有规模和专业知识的投资者将迎来重大机遇. As the renewables sector continues to mature and attract private capital, we believe there will also be ample prospects for acquiring cash-flow-generating, 操作可再生能源资产.

Figure 5: Wind and Solar Are Now the Cheapest Sources of Bulk Generation

图5风能和太阳能
资料来源:彭博新能源财经.

As much as $16 trillion of total investment will be required by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C

中游和运输行业的逆向投资机会

鉴于全球向净零排放过渡的动力和所需能源结构的转变, 市场参与者已经对中游能源资产感到失望.

Yet, 因为在未来的几年里,有效地转换为可再生和可持续的平台的过程将继续要求使用中游资产, fossil fuels will remain an important part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future (see Figure 6). They help support the growth of low-carbon energy alternatives like wind and solar. 

Figure 6: Natural Gas Will Continue to Play a Major Role in Electricity Generation

Natural Gas Will Continue to Play a Major Role in Electricity Generation

Figure 6 Natural Gas
2025年按技术来源估计的发电量

When it comes to carbon emissions, however, not all fossil fuels are equal. Natural gas produces far less pollution and carbon emissions than coal, 并且可以作为不断增长的可再生能源系统的补充. Gas is easy to store and responds rapidly if the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, 哪一个是避免灯火管制和停电的关键. 

天然气面临着价格不稳定的风险, as a result, 投资者对你的好感会忽冷忽热. 为了避免这种波动, 投资者可以专注于高度防御性的投资, 合同固定资产, such as midstream pipelines or liquid natural gas liquefaction and re-gasification facilities. Volatility can also provide opportunities for private investors to access the sector at attractive entry points. 尽管这些资产的寿命是有限的, uedbet安卓相信,它们将在未来几十年向净零排放的过渡中发挥关键作用,并可能提供一个有吸引力的投资机会. 天然气运输网络也可能有助于未来绿色氢和碳封存技术的出现.

Meanwhile, the pandemic has cast an unprecedented level of uncertainty over the transport industry. 全球旅行限制导致通过机场和港口的旅客和货物数量减少, and along highways. 投资者回避这一资产类别是可以理解的,因为人们怀疑需求何时可能恢复到疫情前的水平. 由于疫苗在许多国家仍处于初期阶段, 该行业的全球前景仍远未明朗.

However, 作为港口和收费公路的所有者和经营者, Brookfield亲眼看到,在必要的合同协议到位的情况下,这些资产可以在中断期间表现良好. 考虑到围绕这一资产类别的负面情绪, we believe there may be an opportunity to acquire high-quality assets at attractive valuations.

Looking Ahead

As much of the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, 经济重新开放和扩张, 通胀正成为焦点. As a result, 具有长期投资视野的基础设施管理者必须高度重视确保现金流具有直接或间接的通胀保护. 

For managers who understand these risks and can structure mitigating protections, 当前的经济背景可以创造一个有利的环境,支持高质量基础设施资产的持续强劲表现,并促进更多的投资机会.

While there continues to be increased competition for infrastructure assets globally, 在资本配置方面保持纪律的经理人, 有必要的资源和规模, ESG awareness, 并建立了采购和运营能力, should be well positioned to capitalize on attractive infrastructure investment opportunities going forward.

Endnotes:

1. American Society of Civil Engineers, “2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” 2021. 
2. Goldman Sachs Equity Research, “Carbonomics: The Green Engine of Economic Recovery,” June 2020. 

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